This month, high-school seniors step onto stages across Iowa, accept a diploma and a handshake, and leave as graduates. Iowa’s job picture shows more than ever that they had better watch their step as they do.
When Iowa’s unemployment rate hit 5.2 percent in March, it was at its highest place in over 21 years.
News reports in recent days noted that rate fell in April — but it was only to 5.1 percent. It’s certainly better than the alternative, but let’s take a breath. While that rate seems low in comparison to the national rate of 8.9 percent, rates above 5 percent are high for Iowa — again, higher than at any point since these new grads were born.
IPP has been tracking job trends in Iowa every month since 2003. Our “JobWatch” project, as well as our “State of Working Iowa” publications, have attempted to inject some important historical perspective in the examination of job numbers.
While we all want to be hopeful for a better economy and better opportunities, we need to watch our path. No one should miss the larger implications of a one-month drop in the unemployment rate from 5.2 percent to 5.1 percent, or a smaller nonfarm job loss — 1,600 — compared with many times that in three of the previous four months. Those implications: The unemployment rate is high for Iowa, and in a very short time we have lost the meager gains achieved in nonfarm jobs in recent years.
As our latest JobWatch release points out, nonfarm jobs have declined in seven of the last eight months. Those jobs were down 32,800 over 12 months, almost two-thirds of the decline coming in manufacturing. Large drops in December 2008, February and March totaled over 28,000 lost payroll jobs. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
If we, too, watch our step in determining the importance of a statistic here or there, we might help our new grads watch their future steps a little better as well.
Posted by Mike Owen, Assistant Director