Revenue forecast: A confirmation of failure

Iowans need a handle on what the budget surplus means, and what it doesn’t.

With new revenue information in hand, it is apparent that:

•   Large cuts to higher education were unnecessary
•   Continuing to short-change K-12 schools was needless
•   Concerns about large tax cuts were warranted.

During the 2018 session we saw legislators craft mid-year cuts and an FY2019 austerity budget behind closed doors. The effect will be the same as it has been for several years now: Iowa lawmakers won’t have much to work with when the 2019 legislative session convenes in January due to large tax cuts, leaving tight purse strings for education.

The October 2018 Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) projections show a $127 million surplus — up $95.6 million from what was expected for fiscal year 2018, which ended in June.[1] Many in the state are searching for factors they think contributed to the surplus. In reality, the discrepancy in expected and actual revenue is related to errors in forecasting. The REC used a slower rate of growth in calculating these projections after overestimating revenues for the past two fiscal years.

A significant factor contributing to the surplus is a state revenue boost caused by new federal tax cuts, especially for higher-income families. Iowa has a special state break for federal taxes paid. But because fewer federal taxes are being withheld, additional income is subjected to state tax.

Proponents of the state tax cuts seek to attribute the budget surplus to the cuts themselves. First, it is impossible to credit the budget surplus to the 2018 state tax cuts, most of which will not take full effect until 2019 and beyond.

Second, even the REC estimates do not predict continued growth at the FY18 levels. Iowa will have already given away the FY18 surplus before the beginning of the next legislative session — because tax cuts mean less revenue. The FY20 budget will be tight. This will steer the legislative discourse to hold down K-12 spending, to push higher-ed costs toward tuition and student debt, and to threaten needed services and institutions — as the administration is doing right now to the University of Iowa Labor Center.

Sustainable budgeting requires realistic forecasts and working to help all Iowans understand the impacts of budget and tax choices. A sustainable budget means adequate revenue to pay for essential services such as education, health care and environmental quality, and helping to create opportunity for all.

[1] Iowa Department of Management, “Iowa budget closes with higher-than-expected revenue, $127 million surplus.” September 2018.

Natalie Veldhouse is a research associate for the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project in Iowa City. nveldhouse@iowapolicyproject.org

Food for the fact-checkers

We’ll throw a penalty flag when we see bad information being spread about issues we cover. Case in point: the Governor’s spin about taxes.

At the Iowa Policy Project, we are nonpartisan and we do not support or endorse candidates for office. Rather, we hope those who do, and the candidates and parties themselves, will conduct their discussions on a foundation of fact.

When they do not, we just might throw a penalty flag. Our work is public policy research and analysis, to help people see what is fact and what is not, and to introduce context where it is missing. This is not always easy with complex issues, and there are gray areas. Where bad information is being spread, that interferes with the mission of our work, so we will do what we can to keep that record straight.

Very early in Wednesday’s debate between Governor Kim Reynolds and businessman Fred Hubbell, the Governor made at least two clearly unsupportable claims about taxes. These are issues we cover constantly.

First, the 2018 tax overhaul not only was costly, but overwhelmingly benefited the wealthiest. Any suggestion to the contrary is simply unsupportable, using data provided by the Iowa Department of Revenue in May before the bill passed. Those supporting the bill knew this would be the impact, and those writing it drew it that way.

According to the department, the legislation will mean either no change, or an actual tax increase, to nearly a quarter of resident taxpayers — 23.3 percent — in tax year 2019. For those who receive cuts, the average cut for millionaires was projected to be $20,021; for someone between $60,000 and $70,000 adjusted gross income, the cut was projected to be a tiny sliver of the benefit compared to millionaires — $232.

This flatly negates the Governor’s comment that, “In 2019, virtually every single Iowan will see their taxes go down.” This is clearly inaccurate. Further, as the law is phased in, the continuing impact will be that some will lose, some will not. Unquestionably it will affect public services as hundreds of millions in revenues are cut — which means Iowans who depend upon those services, and that is most Iowans, will lose even more.

Second, the Governor in pushing for new corporate tax cuts chose to play to the myths about business taxes promoted by the business lobby to drive down Iowa’s already low business taxes.

Business consultants have exposed the hollow core of this claim, most recently the Anderson Economic Group, which in June ranked Iowa 15th lowest in state and local business taxes (all of which are governed by state policy). Iowa business taxes consistently have been shown to be competitive.

For more information about both the tax legislation and Iowa taxes on business see these resources:

What real Iowa tax reform would look like, Iowa Policy Project “Roadmap for Opportunity” series, August 2018.

Iowa tax overhaul: Sorting facts, key points from spin, Iowa Fiscal Partnership, May 2018

Myth-Buster: Competitiveness no problem for Iowa taxes, Iowa Fiscal Partnership, March 2018
The problem with tax-cutting as economic policy, Peter Fisher, Iowa Policy Project, GradingStates.org
Mike Owen is executive director of the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project. mikeowen@iowapolicyproject.org

A Roadmap for Opportunity: It’s Time to Put Iowa on the Right Path

At this critical juncture, Iowa can take the high road to shared prosperity, or go down a dead end.

181009-roadmap-logoIowa can unlock the potential of each individual and allow all workers to share in the fruits of their labor by making public investments in the foundations of a strong economy. Well-resourced schools, access to higher education, decent wages and protections, economic supports, clean water and renewable energy, and a cleaned-up tax system, all can pave the way to opportunities and broadly shared prosperity that Iowans want.

Unfortunately, policy choices have put us on a road that prioritizes corporate profits over worker wages and corporate tax cuts over the public investments that allow for a strong, sustainable economy. We are at a crossroads and our policy choices today and in the near future can either pave the path to economic opportunity in every corner of our state, or create roadblocks to prosperity for everyday Iowans.

Our people-first roadmap offers the way forward. It lays out the evidence-based, responsible solutions to our state’s most pressing issues, pinpointing several stops along the way that would mark progress for our state, such as:

pinCreating the workforce of our future and ensuring our children reach their potential. Iowa can and should ensure K-12 schools receive the funding they need for every child to succeed, no matter where they live. We also must restore our commitment to higher education with more state support, lower tuition, and aid to reduce student debt.

pinBoosting economic security and supports for working Iowans. Giving Iowans’ lowest wage workers a long overdue raise, ensuring workers get paid what they’re legally owed, shoring up our system of compensation for workers who get hurt on the job, and restoring worker rights to collective bargaining can ensure that all Iowa workers are getting a fair deal. Iowans also need a boost in child care assistance, which can make or break the ability of a family to work.

pinRestoring a public commitment to the health and well-being of every Iowan, particularly seniors and people living with disabilities. Reversing the privatization of Medicaid and pursuing cost savings through innovation and efficiency rather than reduced services and worker wages are critical steps to ensuring access to health care for all Iowans — now and in the future.

pinEnsuring clean water and renewable energy for a healthy, sustainable Iowa. We can and must balance the state’s need for clean and abundant water with our agricultural economy by reducing water pollution. Likewise, Iowa should restore its legacy of leadership in renewable and efficient energy in order to create a cleaner, greener state for future generations.

pinCleaning up and restoring balance to the tax code. Right now, Iowa asks the lowest income Iowans to pay a higher share of their income in state and local taxes than those with the highest incomes. We can fix this by cleaning up corporate tax loopholes that squander precious public dollars that could otherwise be invested in shared opportunity for Iowans.

Iowa is at a critical juncture. We can take the high road that leads to progress and shared prosperity, or go down a dead end. The policies in this roadmap provide a clear route to a stronger Iowa. For more detail on each stop on the roadmap, please click here.

Assuring opportunity for all Iowans

New Census data highlight the need for Iowa policymakers to ensure that all can fully contribute to Iowa’s economy

New Census data highlights a slight decline in Iowa’s overall poverty rate, though not all racial groups benefited from this advance. Stagnating household incomes and poverty rates among working Iowa families of color over the past 10 years mean that economic gains aren’t broadly shared among racial groups in Iowa.[i]

180915-MedianIncome_Race_IA

Ways that the Iowa Legislature could strengthen economic security for families of color include:

  • expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC);
  • ensuring that high-income Iowans and corporations pay their fair share of taxes;
  • raising the minimum wage; and
  • investing in preschool and K-12 education.[ii]

In recent days, the U.S. Census Bureau released new 2017 data covering poverty, income, and health insurance coverage.

Iowa showed a slight decrease in family and child poverty rates and an increase in household incomes. The outdated poverty guidelines fail to capture what it really takes to get by in Iowa.[iii] Our Cost of Living in Iowa research builds basic needs budgets for multiple family types across Iowa. Our 2018 analysis found that 30 percent of black working households and 28 percent of Latino households were unable to meet basic needs. This compares to 16 percent of white households.[iv]

The median household income for black Iowa families was about half of white family household incomes in 2017. White households are the only group who saw a statistically significant increase in household income over the past 10 years. Poverty rates declined for white and Latino Iowans between 2016 and 2017. However, poverty rates for black, Asian, Pacific Islander, and Native American Iowans have remained the same.[v]

Communities of color in Iowa continue to face barriers to economic prosperity. These include structural factors such as hiring discrimination and a lack access to quality jobs, great schools, and convenient transportation. Latino and Black families are disproportionately low-income. Further, they pay a larger portion of their income in sales and property taxes relative to more affluent Iowans.[vi]

Moving to a less regressive statewide tax system for families while closing corporate tax loopholes to assure stronger investments for all Iowans would work to dismantle some of the barriers to economic success for all Iowans and particularly families of color, who the latest data show are disproportionately impacted.

Expanding the EITC and raising the minimum wage would contribute to more broadly shared prosperity, as would restoring Iowa’s traditional commitment to education. Education funding in Iowa has lagged in K-12 and opportunities to advance in college are threatened by state cuts in support. Iowans and their leaders should be looking to solutions that improve equity and opportunity for a new generation of Iowans.[vii]

[i] U.S. Census Bureau, “Poverty Status in the Past 12 Months.” September 2018. American Community Survey 1-year estimates. factfinder.census.gov/

[ii] Erica Williams, “States Should Adopt Policies to Help Dismantle Racial Barriers to Broader Prosperity.” September 2018. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. https://www.cbpp.org/blog/states-should-adopt-policies-to-help-dismantle-racial-barriers-to-broader-prosperity

[iii] Ibid.

[iv] Peter Fisher and Natalie Veldhouse, “The Cost of Living in Iowa 2018 Edition Part 2: Many Iowa Households Struggle to Meet Basic Needs.” July 2018. Iowa Policy Project. http://iowapolicyproject.org/2018docs/180702-COL2018-Part2.pdf

[v] Ibid.

[vi] Ibid.

[vii] Ibid.

2018-NV-6w_3497(1)Natalie Veldhouse is a research associate at the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project. nveldhouse@iowapolicyproject.org

Labor Day: Celebrating what was, and what could be

This Labor Day could be the low-road benchmark for celebrations of improvements to be seen in the future, reversing current trends against working families.

As always, Labor Day is a day to celebrate Americans’ work ethic and spirit — things that hold promise for better times ahead.

But it is not a time to celebrate what has been happening in Iowa.

A look at the landscape for working families shows this Labor Day could be the low-road benchmark for celebrations of improvements to be seen a year, two years, maybe 10 years from now.

Iowa lawmakers repealed local minimum-wage increases in four counties that acted when state and federal leaders refused. Iowa’s minimum wage is a measly $7.25 an hour and has been held there for 10 1/2 years; some 400,000 workers — and their families — could gain with a raise to $12. (IPP report, 2016) Twenty-nine other states have acted, including all but two of Iowa’s neighbors.

In the middle, Iowa as usual lags the region and the nation, as IPP Senior Research Consultant Colin Gordon showed in a wage update for The State of Working Iowa.

Even at higher wage levels, Iowans are falling short. As Gordon noted:

Colin Gordon

“(T)he wage structure in Iowa is more compressed than it is nationally or in the Midwest. Low-wage workers in Iowa make about the same as low-wage workers everywhere else, but at the higher wages, Iowa workers fall further and further behind. Higher wage jobs are scarcer in Iowa than in most states. And wages in many professions — such as nursing or teaching — trail national and regional peers by wide margins.

“The key point here is not just that wages have stagnated, but they have done so over an era in which the productivity and educational attainment of Iowa workers have improved dramatically.”

If the wage levels weren’t lagging enough already, policy makers have utterly failed Iowa workers by refusing to assure that wages owed are actually paid. Wage theft — refusing to pay wages owed, or violating overtime and employee classification rules — is winked at by a state system that devotes too few resources to enforcement. Lawmakers have refused to act.

Lawmakers deliberately smacked working people with significant legislation in the last General Assembly in at least two other areas:

•   They curtailed collective bargaining rights of public employees, making it tougher for them to organize, and tougher for them to negotiate. In the arena where the state, counties, cities and schools should be leading by example on how to treat employees, the Legislature has chosen to push Iowa toward a race to the bottom. And make no mistake about the impact on the economy: Public-sector jobs are 1 in 6 of all jobs in the state.

•   They also passed legislation to erode workers’ protection and financial security long provided through Iowa’s workers’ compensation law. A study of the effects of one change, reclassifying shoulder injuries, found that the typical worker with such an injury could expect to receive 75 percent less under the new rules.

On top of these, we see the University of Iowa unilaterally acting to eliminate, or eliminate funding for, its own Labor Center that serves thousands and helps Iowans understand what rights they have in the workplace.

And we can count on a continuing assault on Iowa’s strong and accountable public employees’ retirement plans — not to help employees or actually save money, but to feed the ideological drive against public services that is illustrated in examples above. How better to damage those services than to lessen the attraction of jobs that provide them?

Celebrate Labor Day for the people who work to make our nation great. Keep in mind throughout the day that forces are trying to undermine the security of working families — and that Iowans can come together behind policies to support all.

Think of how much better that Labor Day burger off the grill will taste — in some future year — with a side of responsible minimum wage and workplace protection laws, topped off with a stronger economy that will result as more Americans prosper.

Mike Owen is executive director of the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project. mikeowen@iowapolicyproject.org

 

Labor Center: Inviting public discussion

These Labor Center public hearings are an example of what the University of Iowa should have done, on its own — before the decisions were made.

One of the most unsavory parts of the threats to the University of Iowa Labor Center — though not the only one — was the lack of public input into the decision by university officials.

The decision was “announced” under the public radar. Only after the word started spreading about the decision already made, the university decided to go public.

Increasingly, this is how decisions are being made in Iowa by government institutions — the Legislature has been a great example of it in the last two years with attacks on protections for working families and on equity in the tax code. The UI handling of the Labor Center decision is right in line.

These approaches defy Iowa values of transparency and public spirit once treasured in a state once proud of its openness. As we shall see in the coming days, there is an alternative: A reintroduction to the concept of a public hearing.

The “Save Our Labor Center” coalition will hold four such hearings in the coming days in various locations around the state. Each is an hourlong event starting at 6 p.m. Here are the dates and locations:

  • Tuesday, Aug. 14, Des Moines — UAW Local 450 Hall, 4589 NW 6th Drive.
  • Thursday, Aug. 16, Cedar Rapids — IBEW Local 405 Hall, 1211 Wiley Blvd SW.
  • Wednesday, Aug. 22, Bettendorf — USW Local 105 Hall, 880 Devils Glen Road.
  • Tuesday, Aug. 28, Sioux City — UFCW Local 222 Hall, 3038 S. Lakeport St.

As the group notes in flyers it has produced for these hearings:

“University leaders took NO INPUT from any of the workers, students, faculty, or community members who rely on the Labor Center’s education and research prior to announcing their decision. Iowa’s public universities must hear from the public before making major decisions with significant, permanent impact on students, working Iowans, and communities across the state.”

For more information, you can contact saveourlaborcenter@gmail.com.

The Iowa Policy Project works with the University of Iowa Labor Center at times to enhance an understanding of public policy issues, and our staff has found the center to be a tremendous resource for Iowans.

A public university has a fundamental responsibility to the public and to public decision making that is being lost. These hearings are an example of what the University of Iowa should have done, on its own, well in advance of a backroom decision being dumped in the laps of Labor Center staff and the many Iowans who benefit from its work.

It might be interesting to see if anyone from the University of Iowa administration or the Board of Regents shows up at any of these hearings. It would be to their credit to do so, and to listen.

Mike Owen is executive director of the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project. mikeowen@iowapolicyproject.org

The weekend Iowans fool themselves

Think about it: How often do you rush off to a ‘7-percent off’ sale?

It’s here again — the weekend when Iowans buy into some really bad political spin, but leave happy about it because they don’t pay tax on the purchase.

Today and Saturday are the dates of Iowa’s sales tax holiday, which we have noted many times — including here, here and here — is a shopping bag full of nonsense.

As IPP’s Peter Fisher noted in 2014, the third link above, “Who’s to say a retailer, with this officially sanctioned ‘holiday’ marketing, won’t bump prices by 10 percent or call off a 20 Percent Off sale that might have been in place?” Instead of revenue for schools, it’s a recipe for a retailer’s windfall.

Iowa media quite often play along, with rarely a discouraging word challenging the notion of the break, questioning whether any break actually results, and, importantly, how much it costs public services. (It was $1.6 million in its first year, 2000, and by 2015 the break was valued at $3.6 million lost to services.)

Neither does the Iowa Department of Revenue shed light on these issues, which are at least as important as a list it offers of what you can and cannot buy tax-exempt on these hallowed anti-tax days.

Certainly, the sales tax is one that disproportionately hits lower-income people harder than high-income people. The evidence is clear on that. And reducing the impact of the sales tax year-round would be a sensible step if paired with an income-tax increase affecting higher-income people — same revenue, fairer approach.

But this break goes to anyone, so those very wealthy Iowans who are the largest beneficiaries of the income-tax cuts passed in 2018 also get an extra break here.

And there we have the two largest problems with Iowa tax policy: It is inequitable, and it is based on political spin that ultimately harms the public services we depend upon.
Mike Owen is executive director of the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project in Iowa City. mikeowen@iowapolicyproject.org