Posted tagged ‘jobs’

Looking past the distractions on job numbers

April 23, 2013

Colin Gordon

Colin Gordon

Each month about this time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its regional and state job numbers. It’s an important monthly scorecard, an opportunity to measure the state’s performance against the experience of other states, the national picture, and our own recent employment trends. And it’s an important political moment — especially as Governors around the country (and here in Iowa) have tied policy and budgetary decisions to job creation or employment targets.

But this monthly flurry of interest can also distract us from the bigger picture. How many jobs we added this month or last, after all, is less important than the larger and longer term goal of real recovery from the Great Recession. And on that score, we still have some ground to cover.

The graph below (from our State of Working Iowa report, updated through March 2013) compares the 2007 recession to all other postwar recessions, for Iowa and the United States. For the country, the 2007 recession is deeper and longer than any other postwar downturn. Now more than five years (63 months) since the onset of the recession in December 2007, we are far short of pre-recession employment levels.  For Iowa, the picture is a little better — but we are still 7,700 jobs short of the pre-recession peak.

http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/5DDG8FS3T?:display_count=no

This is only part of the story.  As the recessions (and weak recovery) have dragged on, the state has continued to add to its labor force:  now five year’s worth of immigration, in-migration, and high school or college graduations. So our real jobs deficit is not the number of jobs we are short of the pre-recession peak. It is the number of jobs, given our current labor force, we are short of returning to pre-recession rates of employment. That deficit, captured in the graph below, is over 65,000 jobs. In order to clear that deficit in the next three years (during which time the labor force will continue to grow), we would need to add over 80,000 jobs — about 2,000 a month over that span.  Over the past year, or rate of job creation has been about half that (averaging only 920 jobs/month).

Basic RGB

Posted by Colin Gordon, Senior Research Consultant

Iowa’s decline in job-based health insurance

April 11, 2013

The Cedar Rapids Gazette today offered an interesting look at the question of where Iowans get their insurance. It’s less and less something that comes through employment. And when the costs of insurance keep rising, that makes it tougher on the household budget — or results in people not having insurance.

This is a trend we’ve been watching and reporting on at the Iowa Policy Project for many years, as have several good research organizations such as the Economic Policy Institute.

The Affordable Care Act offers at least a partial remedy. As health insurance exchanges are developed, affordable insurance should be more readily available. Tax credits for employers providing insurance will provide a targeted incentive to offer employees a better option than what employees might find on the individual insurance market.

Colin Gordon

Colin Gordon

Our State of Working Iowa report for 2012 offers another good look at this issue. As author Colin Gordon observes, wage stagnation, erosion of good jobs and recession have combined to batter workers, at the same time non-wage forms of compensation, health and pension benefits, also have declined. This has eroded both job quality and family financial security, and increased the need for public insurance. In Chapter 3, “The Bigger Picture,” Gordon writes that Iowa is one of 15 states, including five in the Midwest, to lose more than 10 percent of job-based coverage in a decade. He continues:

These losses reflect two overlapping trends. The first of these is costs. Health spending has slowed in recent years, but still runs well ahead of general inflation. Both premium costs … and the employee’s share of premiums have risen sharply — especially for family coverage — while wages have stagnated.

In 1999, a full-time median-wage worker in Iowa needed to work for about 10 weeks in order to pay an annual family premium; by 2011, this had swollen to nearly 25 weeks. Steep cost increases have pressed employers to drop or cut back coverage, or employees to decline it when offered. High costs may also encourage more employees to elect single coverage — counting on spousal coverage from another source and kids’ coverage through public programs. The second factor here is the shift in sectoral employment outlined above: Job losses are heaviest in sectors that have historically offered group health coverage; and job gains (or projected job gains) are strongest in sectors that don’t offer coverage.

This graph looks at the rate of employer-sponsored coverage, by industry sector, from 2002 to 2012.

job-based coverage comparison, Iowa 2002-2012

An interactive version of that graph in the online report allows the reader to toggle between those two years; the colored balloons sink on the graph in moving from 2002 to 2012, as if they all are losing air — the result of declining rates of coverage.

Good public policy could help to fill them again.

2010-mo-blogthumbPosted by Mike Owen, Assistant Director

 

Different goals for progress on Iowa jobs

April 2, 2013
David Osterberg

David Osterberg

The graph below offers one way — actually, four ways — to look at the latest nonfarm job numbers in the context of history and job goals for Iowa.

As of February, we’re 4,100 behind where we were at the start of the recession in December 2007, and 7,200 behind Iowa’s peak nonfarm job level in May 2008.

However, Economic Policy Institute analysis suggests that those historical numbers don’t give an apples-to-apples picture for how well the economy is producing jobs to meet the demand for jobs — that you need to factor in growth in the population. When that is done, Iowa still has 60,900 to go to reach where we were before the recession.

Yet another number to consider is Governor Branstad’s goal of creating 200,000 jobs in five years. Since his term started in January 2011, Iowa has produced a net total of 44,900 jobs, which works out to a pace of 1,800 net new jobs per month. At that pace, the state is well off what is necessary to reach the Governor’s goal — 4,400 per month for the remaining 35 months of the five-year period.

Inline image 1

As we point out in our monthly Iowa JobWatch report, the overall job numbers do not tell the full story about the job climate in our state. One thing those monthly numbers do not disclose is any detail about job quality — whether jobs gained or lost are full-time or part-time jobs, or are permanent or temporary positions, or pay well, or offer health and/or retirement benefits.

For more, see our latest Iowa JobWatch report and also The State of Working Iowa 2012.

Posted by David Osterberg, Executive Director

Manufacturing trends by state through the years

October 24, 2012
Colin Gordon

Colin Gordon

In September, prompted by President Clinton’s discussion of the overall U.S. “jobs score” under Republican and Democratic presidents since 1961, Stephen Herzenberg of the Keystone Research Center and I analyzed trends since 1949 in manufacturing employment by presidential administration.[1]

Manufacturing jobs have particular significance because they pay better (even today) than jobs in other sectors to equivalent groups of workers, and because they leverage more related employment (up and down the supply chain) and more export growth than any other sector. In addition, manufacturing workers and many manufacturing-intensive regions (e.g., in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) have political significance: Their swings back and forth between the two parties often decide the outcome of presidential elections.

Since the release of our national manufacturing jobs score analysis, we learned that the Bureau of Labor Statistics maintains data that make it possible to examine trends in manufacturing employment by state since 1939.[2] We have produced a briefing paper on these issues, beginning with an exploration of manufacturing employment trends since 1948 nationally, in four multistate regions, and in individual states.

In the subsequent section of the paper, we detail the findings for a single state, Pennsylvania, but we also provide charts online for all states, inviting similar analysis of states besides Pennsylvania.) The last part of the paper considers what our numbers mean, drawing on our published work on the national manufacturing jobs trends.

The Keystone Report details our findings — and their implications — for Pennsylvania. But we also provide an interactive map and chart that allow investigation of the numbers for any state or region. The chart below examines Iowa manufacturing job trends from 1948 to present.

graph of manufacturing job trends in IowaPosted by Colin Gordon, Senior Research Consultant

Score one for economic reality: Public jobs matter

October 22, 2012
Mike Owen

Mike Owen

Today’s New York Times editorial, “The Myth of Job Creation,” takes both President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney to task for their comments in the second debate about the importance of public-sector (government) jobs.

As the Times noted:

Public-sector job loss means trouble for everyone. Government jobs are crucial to education, public health and safety, environmental protection, defense, homeland security and myriad other functions that the private sector cannot fulfill. They are also critical for private-sector job growth in … fundamental ways.

At the Iowa Policy Project, we have made this case repeatedly in Iowa over the last few years, both in response to cutbacks in Iowa budgets and to misinformed political assaults on federal stimulus spending, which did a good job bridging revenue gaps in Iowa to prevent worse cutbacks in public-sector spending. See our latest “Iowa JobWatch.”

In Iowa, 1 in 6 jobs is a government job, at the local, state or national level. How is it possible that roughly a quarter-million jobs in our state do not have an important impact on our economy? The answer of course is that they do. The lion’s share of those jobs are in local government, so they are scattered across the state. They are filled by our neighbors, buying goods and services from local businesses and keeping kids in our schools. As the Times notes, regarding comments by both presidential candidates suggesting that “government does not create jobs”:

Except that it does, millions of them — including teachers, police officers, firefighters, soldiers, sailors, astronauts, epidemiologists, antiterrorism agents, park rangers, diplomats, governors (Mr. Romney’s old job) and congressmen (like Paul Ryan).

As with shortsighted approaches in budgeting that attempt to resolve all deficit issues with spending cuts, instead of taking a balanced approach to both the spending and revenue sides of the budget ledger, our leaders make a mistake when they think all new jobs have to be in the private sector or they don’t matter. Public-sector spending feeds private industry, and creates new jobs in the private sector. To pretend otherwise is foolish.

It’s always good when a dose of fiscal and economic reality hits the public debate. But it is unfortunate that it doesn’t happen more often.

Posted by Mike Owen, Assistant Director

Good signs on jobs horizon?

October 5, 2012
Heather Gibney, Research Associate

Heather Gibney

The national unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in September — down from 8.1 percent from August. Nonfarm jobs nationally rose by 114,000 with gains in areas like health care, transportation and warehousing.[1]

Iowa’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has been averaging two to three percentage points lower than the national average pretty much all through the Great Recession and recovery. It is good to see this gap beginning to close.

However, in August, the Iowa unemployment rate increased to 5.5 percent, worse than July, but better than a year ago when the rate was at 6.0 percent.  Iowa Workforce Development[2] cites seasonal job losses, effects of drought conditions, a global economic slowdown, and the national uncertainty surrounding taxes and expenditure cuts as factors that are restraining job growth.

We’ll get Iowa’s unemployment data for September later this month. Now that the national unemployment rate is breaking through the 8 percent mark we would hope to see Iowa’s rate fall below 5 percent in the near future.

[1] http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

[2] http://www.iowaworkforce.org/news/XcNewsPlus.asp?cmd=view&articleid=81

Posted by Heather Gibney, Research Associate

Connecting dots draws tough course for Iowa jobs

July 31, 2012

The chart projecting Iowa jobs in the near future is not pretty.

click on image for interactive version

Using the most current state level numbers, for 2008-2018), this graph shows that the fastest growing jobs taking larger shares of the Iowa job market through 2018 are in sectors that pay lower than the state median wage. Dots represent occupations; blue dots pay higher than the statewide median wage (2011 numbers) and red dots pay lower. Move your cursor to each dot to see the occupation, its 2008 employment, its median wage and projected employment.

Only 4 of 18 occupations projecting job gains over 1,500 by 2018 pay better than a median wage, and only one of the 10 occupations projecting job gains over 2,000 pay better than the median. Six occupations (retail sales, office clerk, nursing aides, home health aides, food preparation, and customer service) project job growth greater than 4,000 and the highest wage in this group falls more than $2.00 short of the median wage.

Why is this happening? Don’t blame it on an educational gap, in which workers with skills pull away from the rest. As the Center for Economic and Policy Research has shown — here and here and here — today’s low wage workers are older and better educated  than ever.

It also is not an artifact of the business cycle, as the Department of Labor estimates in long-term projections that about a third of new jobs through the next decade will be in low-wage service occupations (retail, home health care, child care, janitorial).

Combine these projections with the troubling trend of the last business cycle, which hit good jobs hard. The National Employment Law Project has shown (here and updated here), that job losses during the recession were concentrated in mid-wage occupations, while job gains during the recovery have been concentrated at the low end.

Our work, it seems, is cut out for us — well-paid or not.

Posted by Colin Gordon, Senior Research Consultant

Note: Colin Gordon is a Professor of History at the University of Iowa and Senior Research Consultant at the Iowa Policy Project. This post is taken from his blog, TelltaleChart.org

Iowa JobWatch: Jobless Rate Dips — Payroll Jobs Improve

March 13, 2012
David Osterberg

David Osterberg

Unemployment Rate 5.4 Percent in January; Job Growth Still Slow in State

IOWA CITY, Iowa (March 13, 2012) — Analysts at the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project noted the unemployment rate dipped to 5.4 percent in January, down from 5.6 percent in December, as payroll jobs also improved by 3,700. IPP, which tracks employment trends in Iowa, released this statement from Executive Director David Osterberg:

Employment over the last year in Iowa is showing good signs, though growth remains very slow. Payroll data showed a net gain of over 9,000 jobs during the year, with about 40 percent of those jobs added in January.

Especially good news was the fact that the state gained nearly 12,000 manufacturing jobs from January 2011 to January 2012. These jobs generally are higher paid and often have benefits. However, the state also lost 4,000 government jobs and 3,200 professional and business services jobs, also generally better paid than jobs in some sectors.

Now that the economy seems to be picking up with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.4 percent, it is time to question the quality of the jobs we are getting back. And it is time to stop shedding jobs in the public sector. That is one area that the governor and legislature have some control over.

The state still remains almost 41,000 jobs behind where it was at the start of the last recession in December 2007. Still, things are looking better.

Key Numbers

— Nonfarm jobs were up in January by 3,700, to 1,484,300, from the revised December estimate.
— Nonfarm jobs are 43,900 behind the May 2008 peak of 1,528,200, and 40,900 behind the level at the start of the last recession in December 2007.                           
— The unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in January, down from 5.6 percent in December and down from 6.1 percent a year earlier.
— The labor force, those working or looking for work, was virtually unchanged (up 100), but slightly down (1,900) over the year.
— Initial unemployment claims were down — by 37 percent, to 19,846 — for the month, and down 6.3 percent over the year.                                    

Key Trends

— Iowa averaged a monthly increase of only 800 jobs, in the last 12 months.
— Nonfarm jobs are above year-ago level for the 16th month in row.
— Manufacturing is the top-gaining job sector over the past 12 months, up 11,800, followed by construction at 3,100 and trade, transportation and utilities at 2,900. Manufacturing led gains for the month at 3,500, with leisure and hospitality up 3,200 and “other” services up 1,600.
— Government jobs declined by 4,000 over the year, and professional and business services fell by 3,200. For the month, education and health services led declines at 2,500, and professional and business services dropped 1,200.


#   #   #   #   #

Quality of life — the path to good jobs and schools

January 11, 2012
Will Hoyer

Will Hoyer


Governor Branstad wants Iowans to focus “like a laser beam” on jobs and education. If we are to do so, he must get us to examine how we’re managing our precious land and water. He cannot expect to achieve his job goals without those important parts of the picture.

What happens when people don’t want the jobs that are available because the air is so dirty that people get sick? What happens when well-educated, highly qualified job candidates pass up Iowa for another state that demonstrates a commitment to clean water and air? A variety of aspects make Iowa a desirable place to bring a business or a family. Most focus on quality of life.

If our children are educated in world-class schools they will have job opportunities everywhere. Companies across the country and across the world will be clamoring to hire hard-working, well-educated Iowa kids and those kids will have choices. Will they want to live in a state that demonstrates a commitment to clean air and clean water? Will they want a place that invests in parks and recreational opportunities? Absolutely.

As The Des Moines Register has pointed out, Iowa consistently ranks near the bottom in per-capita spending on recreation and conservation.

Politicians often talk of a “mandate” when they win an election with 52 or 53 percent of the vote. Why, then, can they not look back on the November 2010 election and recognize that a whopping 63 percent of Iowans voted for an amendment that would dedicate funding to improve Iowa’s waters and land? Now, that is a mandate.

Nobody will argue against creating jobs or improving education. It is a mistake to assume we can do either without other things that attract new people to Iowa and keep them here.

We educate smart people. If a smart Iowa-educated college grad can choose between a job in an Iowa town where the smell of a large hog confinement or industrial grain processor pollutes the air, or where nobody feels safe getting in the river water that runs through downtown, and a comparable job outside Iowa where clean air and water are the norm, we know what the choice will be.

We must invest in children’s education here in this state but we also must invest in protecting the environment so those children grow up healthy. We must invest in creating good jobs where people can work eight hours a day but we must also invest in protecting the environment where those workers live 24 hours a day.

Posted by Will Hoyer, Research Associate

State government employment stable in Iowa across years

August 15, 2011

Now you might never know it to hear some of the political talk, but Iowa is not a state in which state government employment has grown.

Number of State Employees Has Remained Stable Over Time

Graph: No. of State Employees Has Remained Stable Over Time

Number of State Employees Per Thousand Iowans Has Held Steady

Graph: Number of State Employees Per Thousand Iowans Holds Steady

Both graphs above show that employment by state government has remained relatively stable. Note neither graph includes 2010 or 2011, which would indicate the more recent effects of a 10 percent across-the-board budget cut and early retirements. The second graph demonstrates that considering population growth, Iowa has seen a decline in state employment from the 1990s.

See Getting Public Value Out of Our Public Dollars,” an October 2010 report from the Iowa Fiscal Partnership, at www.IowaFiscal.org.

Posted by Andrew Cannon, Research Associate


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.